Three Minute Digest for May 19, 2022 - Lost in Translation: Some Plain English Observations

May 19, 2022

The news media works to get our attention and hold it. Capturing the passions of a sporting event are formulated to perfection by the broadcast industry and by treating the market day as a sporting event, the goal of holding of our attention is achieved. And fear is a more powerful emotion then optimism. As your Financial Advisors, we seek to translate the industry jargon that so often confuses and worries you to plain English and describe what it means to you and your portfolios.

Recession

Media:   The question is whether we are in fact headed for a recession as defined by a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. We must debate if it will happen, when it will happen, how severe will it be and how long it will last.

Affinity Capital:   While we enjoy this professional financial industry discussion, what does it mean for you? Whether we pinpoint and document an official recession is of little use. Simply put, growth in our economy is slowing significantly and we do not see much light at the end of a short or a medium length tunnel.

We have been positioning your portfolios for this slowdown since January.

Predicting a Market Bottom

Media:   Economies and asset prices are interconnected in complex fashion, and relationships between them are constantly shifting. That is why even the most sophisticated fundamental models or pattern-recognition algorithms are incapable of reliable forecasts.  But none the less, we see an endless parade of prognosticators making reliable forecasts!

Affinity Capital: We never know a market top or bottom until it is written in history. It is most difficult to predict specific prices and time the markets, so we try move with the overall tides. We do develop price targets to be used as watch areas for both the markets and specific securities. Based upon our research, you have seen numerous sales in your portfolios in response to this falling market.

Our reinvestment strategy will involve a measured approach to reinvestment and includes some degree of confidence that the worst is behind us. It is reasonable to miss some reward to gain the benefit of limiting additional potential risk to the downside. As long-term investors, the question is whether we believe that markets will reach new highs in the future? The answer is yes, so our goal is to limit losses and find opportune times to buy and be rewarded going forward.

Is the Worst Behind Us?

Media: Did you realize that on average, less than 10% of publicly traded stocks have a sell rating by Wall Street Analysts? Wall Street firms realize considerable profit by providing financial advice for companies of all types, stock, and bond issuance, securing sources of funding, managing risk, and providing asset management services. There is little incentive to offend corporate clients with a less than desirable opinion of their stock nor provide investors in general with an outlook that would lead them to escape a market sell-off. It is in their best interest to keep their clients invested regardless of market conditions. With that said, it is difficult to find a consistent message for a consumer to adhere to. We want Affinity Capital to serve that need for you.

Affinity Capital:  

Recently there were a few days of market rallies. Last week we stated, “ While rebound rallies are likely, the trend is certainly down.”  Last week, the S&P 500 hit a low that was -20% off the market high achieved at the beginning of the year. A drop of -20% is understood to be “bear market” territory. Right now, we do not see any evidence that this is any more than a bear market rally spurred by hitting this level. We see little positive evidence of a recovering economy and think we are in the early innings of stagflation. See our recent market comment:   Three Minute Digest for March 31, 2022

While our prevailing opinion is one of caution, our ongoing preparation incorporates multiple scenarios and includes plans for a rising market.

As the Fed continues to raise interest rates this year, we recall an old market adage, “Don’t Fight the Fed.” The goal of raising interest rates is to slow growth and tame inflation. While there are always areas of the market in which to invest, the growth stocks that have led the markets higher over the years are most susceptible to rising rates. So, while rates are rising, many stock sectors will continue to be under pressure.

The war in Ukraine continues while the applications of Sweden and Norway to join NATO further troubles an irrational Russia. Meanwhile Interest Rates, Inflation, Energy Prices, and Supply Chain Disruptions all continue to negatively affect economic growth.

Our watch areas for the technology heavy Nasdaq see a potential drop of another -10%. We see a similar potential drop of -10% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a potential drop of -4% for the S&P 500. At that point, it will either be the bottom of this sell-off and a good point to invest or it is the top of the next downturn. You may see new investments in your portfolios but if the markets resume their downturn, we may quickly retreat. Last week we stated that “Navigating a market such as this is referred to as Trying to Catch a Falling Knife .”   This is a very accurate reference for this market!

As always, please feel free to call with any questions.   We very much appreciate your business.

Market Update: Inflation, AI, and the Road Ahead

June 25, 2026
Markets continue to navigate a mix of encouraging economic news and ongoing global uncertainty. While investors remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the economy and corporate earnings, headlines from around the world continue to influence day-to-day trading. One of the biggest factors remains geopolitics. Although tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, investors are still watching developments closely because they can affect oil prices, inflation, and ultimately interest rates. Lower oil prices this week have helped calm some inflation concerns, which has been a positive for the broader market. Technology also remains in the spotlight. Strong earnings and continued investment in artificial intelligence have supported parts of the market, although investors are becoming more selective as valuations in some technology companies remain elevated. Looking ahead, markets will continue to focus on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's next steps. If inflation continues to moderate, it could provide support for stocks. However, unexpected developments overseas, changes in energy prices, or shifts in economic data could still create short-term volatility. While short-term market movements can be unsettling, they are a normal part of investing. Rather than reacting to daily headlines, we remain focused on building portfolios designed to weather changing market conditions and help you pursue your long-term financial objectives. Maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment strategy remains one of the most effective ways to navigate uncertainty. As always, if your financial situation or goals have changed, we're here to help ensure your plan continues to align with what matters most to you.

What We're Watching This June — Market Thoughts for You

June 1, 2026
As we turn the page to June, markets find themselves at a familiar crossroads: optimism tempered by uncertainty, momentum tested by macro headwinds. May closed on a constructive note, with equities finishing the month at or near all-time highs — a remarkable recovery from the turbulence that defined the early part of the year. The dominant theme of 2026 has been resilience in the face of disruption. From the tariff volatility of the first quarter to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East, investors have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to look through near-term noise toward the fundamentals. That posture has been rewarded. The S&P 500 has returned over 10% year-to-date, driven in large part by an exceptional earnings season — first-quarter blended growth came in above 28%, the strongest pace in several years — and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence investment. Yet the risk landscape heading into summer is far from benign. The conflict in the Middle East remains the single most important variable in the macro calculus. Energy markets have been severely disrupted, with Brent crude up sharply on the year despite recent relief as hopes for a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz gained traction. Oil prices are not merely an energy story — they are a consumer story, an inflation story, and ultimately an interest rate story. A durable peace agreement could be a meaningful tailwind; a breakdown in talks, the opposite. The bond market deserves particular attention. One of the defining features of this cycle has been the breakdown of the traditional stock-bond diversification relationship. Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, long-duration Treasuries have failed to provide the ballast they historically offered during periods of equity stress. Sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits, and energy-driven price pressures have conspired to keep yields elevated. Investors relying on a classic 60/40 framework may find that the playbook requires updating looking into high quality corporates. On the monetary policy front, the transition at the Federal Reserve — from Chair Powell to Kevin Warsh — has so far been absorbed calmly, with equity and bond volatility both declining in recent sessions. The Fed's path remains data-dependent, and this week's jobs report will be closely watched. Consensus expects the unemployment rate to hold near 4.3%, consistent with a "low hire, low fire" labor market. More interesting may be the wage data: softening wage growth could constrain consumer spending at a moment when the personal savings rate is already under pressure. Globally, the picture is more nuanced than a simple risk-on or risk-off framing suggests. European equities outperformed in May, while the ECB is now actively signaling the possibility of rate hikes in June — a stark contrast to the easing cycle many had anticipated a year ago. Emerging markets have staged a meaningful recovery, supported by AI infrastructure spending and a softer U.S. dollar. The macro divergences between regions are as wide as they have been in years, and that creates both risk and opportunity depending on how portfolios are positioned. Seasonality is worth noting as well. June has historically been a challenging month for equities in midterm election years, and after a sharp rally off the March lows, some degree of consolidation would not be surprising. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and the conditions for short-term choppiness — elevated geopolitical risk, a pivotal central bank meeting in Europe, key economic data releases, and a VIX that has returned to complacency — are present. The bottom line: the fundamental backdrop remains broadly supportive, earnings momentum is intact, and long-term investors have been well-served by staying disciplined. But the risks are real and the range of outcomes is wide. In an environment where traditional hedges are less reliable and geopolitics can move markets overnight, diversification, quality, and a clear-eyed view of one's own time horizon matter more than ever. As always, we are here to discuss how these dynamics relate to your specific situation. Please do not hesitate to reach out.

The Order of Returns

April 29, 2026
The first four months of 2026 have been a useful reminder that markets do not move in straight lines. After entering the year at record highs, U.S. equities pulled back sharply on geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict, with the S&P 500 coming close to a ten percent decline before recovering much of that ground. Volatility has returned again on rising energy prices and a softer tone from the technology sector that has carried so much of this cycle’s leadership. Oil sits near one hundred dollars per barrel, the ten-year Treasury yield hovers near four and a half percent, and traditional diversification between stocks and bonds has been less reliable than many investors have come to expect. None of this changes our long-term view. It does sharpen a conversation we believe every household within ten years of retirement, on either side of that line, should be having right now. THE QUESTION THAT MATTERS MOST After more than thirty years of advising families through every kind of market, I have come to believe that one question matters more than almost any other in retirement planning. It is not what your average return will be. It is not even how much you have saved. The question is this: in what order will those returns arrive, and what will the portfolio be doing when they do? Two households can finish their working years with identical balances and identical long-term average returns. One can run out of money. One can remain wealthy for life. The only difference between them is the order in which good and bad years happened to fall. WHY ORDER MATTERS MORE THAN AVERAGE When a portfolio is accumulating, a market drop is something close to a gift. Contributions buy more shares at lower prices. When a portfolio is distributing, the same drop is a wound. Every dollar withdrawn during a downturn cannot participate in the recovery, and the base from which all future growth compounds is permanently smaller. Retirees who began withdrawals in 1973, in 2000, or in 2008 lived through outcomes quite different from those who retired even two or three years earlier or later. Same averages over the long arc. Very different lives for the family. THE RETIREMENT RED ZONE Retirement planning does not begin the year you stop working. It begins five to ten years before. We sometimes call that window the retirement red zone, and it is the period in which the wrong portfolio, held too long, can do real and lasting damage. A portfolio that served someone beautifully through their fifties is rarely the right portfolio for the first decade of withdrawals. Waiting until the retirement date itself to reposition is not a plan. It is a hope. HOW WE REPOSITION PORTFOLIOS Repositioning is a multi-year process, not a single trade. We model honest cash-flow needs in dollars. We construct one to three years of withdrawals in stable, liquid reserves so no client is ever forced to sell equities into a falling market. We build an intermediate layer of high-quality bonds to refill those reserves over time. We sequence withdrawals across taxable, traditional, and Roth accounts to manage lifetime tax cost, often using the years before Social Security and required minimum distributions for thoughtful Roth conversions. We rightsized concentrated and legacy positions over multiple tax years. And we stress test the plan against a meaningful market drop in year one before any client crosses the retirement line. A CLOSING THOUGHT Sequence risk is not really a math problem. It is a human one. The discipline to reposition during good markets, when it can feel almost unnecessary, is what separates retirees who sleep well from those who reach for the wrong decision at the worst possible moment. By the time a dramatic market drop arrives, the work either has been done or it has not. Whether you are a long-time client of Affinity Capital or considering a relationship with our firm, we would welcome a conversation about how your portfolio is positioned for the years ahead.