A Roller Coaster Market of Inflation Fears and International Concern

April 21, 2022

As we entered the final months of trading for last year, we asked the question, “Have we seen the market highs for the year?”  Our estimation at the time was, “We are going to lean to an answer of … yes.”  The markets did find new highs. See our comment here: www.affinity-cap.com/blog-01/two-questions-about-market-today

The following month we stated, “We are pleasantly surprised by the strength of the stock market and have maintained our portfolio allocations to participate in these gains even though we have numerous concerns that we highlighted last month.” We explained our belief that companies buying their own stock in huge quantities was artificially propping up the markets: www.affinity-cap.com/blog-01/newtons-laws-motion-rising-markets-share-buybacks-0

We also said that we believe that inflation and rising interest rates are the primary issues on which the markets will focus.

Other issues included COVID, inflation, semiconductor chip shortages, goods shortages due to supply chain disruptions, Chinese regulatory crackdowns, the U.S. debt limit, … Federal Reserve tapering of interest rate risk and rising oil prices.

We also asked the question, “are we facing a long list of worry or opportunity?” First, we believe part of our job is to worry for you so you can sleep better at night. We are always concerned about what might affect your portfolios and then try to minimize those concerns. In the short term, we do see challenges that should be monitored. As for opportunities, they may be more difficult to realize going forward. As of today, we believe that the markets will be challenging through the mid-term elections on November 8, 2022.

We were in fact correct in our beliefs at the end of last year, just a bit early in our call.

One of our key concerns for over a year has been inflation and rising interest rates. We add a current concern of the situation with Russia and Ukraine as well as the opportunity China may exploit regarding Taiwan.

Inflation and Rising Interest Rates

There are two key barometers which Wall Street investors monitor closely. One is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The 10-year Treasury note is a debt obligation -think of a bond or a certificate of deposit - issued by the United States government with a maturity of 10 years. It pays interest at a fixed rate or yield.  

The 10 Year yield started in January at 1.52%. Last week it had spiked to 1.87%. While the numbers may appear small, that is an increase of 22% in just a few weeks and the expectation is that it may go higher. This is confirmation of inflation fears that we all see each day in the prices of gas, food and most everything consumers and businesses purchase. A little inflation means a growing economy, an elevated level of sustained inflation equals a host of problems for our economy. Right now, it is the fear of future uncontrolled inflation that is so concerning to the markets.

The second key barometer of inflation and rising interest rates is The Federal Open Market Committee or the FOMC. This is the branch of the Federal Reserve System whose mission is to promote stable prices and economic growth. Simply put, the FOMC manages the nation's money. The twelve members of the FOMC meet eight times a year to discuss whether there should be any changes to near-term monetary policy.

As their mission to promote stable prices involves fighting inflation, their actions are closely monitored by the markets. It is forecasted that the FOMC members may vote to raise rates as many as three times this year in an effort to slow the rate of inflation.

Russia and Ukraine / China and Taiwan

Mixed signals abound within the question of whether Russia will make advances on Ukraine. In 2014, Russia moved into parts of Ukraine and still maintains control of key areas. Russia sees Ukraine and all the satellite countries of the former USSR as traditional and historic pieces of their homeland. Russia fears that Ukraine or other bordering countries may be invited to join The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, which has agreements to defend any member countries against aggression.

Russia has vast energy, mining, and agricultural resources. Disruption of these industries through further sanctions or military conflict would have serious repercussions for world markets.

At the same time, China has increased their verbal rhetoric and their military activities around Taiwan. The question of Taiwan’s sovereignty from China dates to 1949 although it is a long and complicated history. Taiwan is a rare case in which Washington has a security partnership  with an entity with which it does not have diplomatic relations.

Our response for much of the past year regarding inflation and economic concerns has been to lean towards value versus growth and focus on traditional guards against inflation such as financials, interest-rate hedged bond funds, a REIT fund, or Real Estate Investment Trust, and energy. We also have an allocation to Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds although this is an investment in which the name implies an obvious solution to rising rates, but the mechanics of these securities are a bit more complicated and require close monitoring.

Here in 2022, we have sold our international fund, sold our remaining position in small cap growth as well as our Nasdaq mid-cap fund and maintained a higher level of cash that will serve us well if this market volatility continues. We added to our technology heavy Nasdaq position as it weakens and may add more if it falls to another key support level.

In our evaluation of the more technical aspects of the buying and selling in the markets, we see some key breakdowns in numerous areas. While we could see buyers come into this market looking for bargain days, we remain cautious and watchful.

Fed Makes First Cut—Markets React with Hope and Caution

September 17, 2025
The big news today: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points , lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25% . This is the first rate cut since 2023, and it marks what could be the beginning of a new easing cycle. Chair Powell acknowledged that the labor market is showing signs of strain —job growth has slowed, unemployment has edged higher—while inflation, though still above target, has been gradually moderating. One member of the committee even pushed for a larger 50-point cut, underscoring the growing concern about keeping the economy on stable footing. Markets largely anticipated this move, and that helped set the tone for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs earlier in the week , reflecting investor optimism that lower rates will support growth. Small-cap stocks also enjoyed a bounce, showing that confidence wasn’t limited to the mega-cap names. At the same time, Treasury yields fell toward 4% before inching back up, a sign that bond investors are weighing both the near-term relief of rate cuts and the longer-term risk that inflation remains sticky. Economic data released this week helped frame the Fed’s decision. August inflation readings came in a touch hotter than expected , with headline CPI up 2.9% year over year and core inflation at 3.1%. Those numbers are still above the Fed’s target, but not high enough to derail its decision to pivot toward easing. Meanwhile, energy prices moved higher on global supply concerns, giving the energy sector a lift, while technology—especially companies tied to AI—continued to outperform. Beyond the numbers, politics are adding a layer of uncertainty. Recent controversies around Fed appointments and legal challenges to sitting governors have raised questions about the central bank’s independence. Markets are watching closely to see whether these distractions influence policy direction. Globally, other central banks, including Canada’s, have also begun shifting to more accommodative stances, reinforcing the sense that the next phase of policy is easing across major economies. So what does this mean looking ahead? Markets could see more upside in the short run , especially in interest-rate sensitive areas like housing and consumer spending. But investors should also prepare for continued volatility —each new jobs or inflation report has the potential to swing sentiment quickly. If inflation proves stickier than hoped, long-term Treasury yields could rise even as short-term rates fall, a dynamic that might pressure parts of the financial sector. In short, the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth, but the Fed has signaled it is prepared to act again, with two additional cuts projected before year-end. Bottom line : The Fed has taken its first step toward easing, reflecting concerns about growth while balancing persistent inflation risks. Markets are encouraged, but optimism remains cautious as investors adjust to a more complex mix of risks and opportunities. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you. At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to Wealth Management for Life —providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.

What’s Happening in the Market—and What It Means for You

September 4, 2025
The market’s summer calm may be giving way to a more dynamic period. In the weeks ahead, jobs data, inflation reports, tariff developments, and Federal Reserve policy decisions will dominate the investment landscape. With the S&P 500 now more than 90 days removed from a 2% decline—the longest such run since mid-2024—the stage is set for renewed volatility. September has historically been the market’s weakest month, averaging a 0.7% decline over the past 30 years. Four of the last five Septembers ended lower. A correction of 5–10% this fall would not be surprising and could, in fact, set the stage for a stronger year-end rally. Key drivers include: Federal Reserve policy — easing inflation may open the door to rate cuts, while strong job growth could delay them. Volatility Index (VIX) — at unusually low levels, suggesting complacency and the potential for sharper reactions to new developments. Triple witching expirations — adding short-term trading pressure this September. Despite these factors, the macro environment remains supportive. Earnings resilience, healthy economic growth, and investor confidence underpin the outlook. Elevated valuations are best understood as a reflection of optimism about future earnings, particularly in sectors leading innovation. Our perspective: We expect choppier markets in the near term, but remain constructive on equities for year-end. We continue to focus on portfolio resilience, opportunistic rebalancing, and selective positioning in areas where growth prospects justify higher valuations. For investors, discipline and perspective are essential. Volatility is not an enemy—it is an inevitable part of capital markets and often a source of opportunity. At times like these, it’s important to remember that markets move in cycles—but your goals remain constant. Our role is to help you stay focused, avoid distractions, and make thoughtful adjustments as opportunities and risks arise. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you. At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to Wealth Management for Life —providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.

Signals from the Fed: Inflation, Growth, and What Comes Next

August 22, 2025
It was a Fed-heavy week, with three major developments that matter for markets and the economy. FOMC minutes (July 29–30) — released Wednesday (Aug. 20). The minutes reinforced a data-dependent stance : participants saw continued progress on inflation but noted that risks aren’t one-way, citing pockets of labor-market cooling and the growth impact of tighter financial conditions. Policymakers emphasized flexibility and the need to see inflation moving durably toward 2% before declaring victory. For investors, the takeaway is that the bar for rapid policy shifts remains high, but the Committee is clearly keeping both sides of the mandate in view. Weekly balance sheet (H.4.1) — released Thursday (Aug. 21). The Fed’s weekly statement showed the usual moving pieces: securities holdings, reserve balances, and program usage. While week-to-week changes can be noisy, the release remains a useful pulse on system liquidity and the runoff of the Fed’s portfolio under quantitative tightening . Markets watch aggregate reserves and Treasury General Account flows because they can nudge front-end rates and funding conditions at the margin. Jackson Hole — Chair Powell’s Friday address. At the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium, Chair Powell underscored that policy decisions will continue to be guided by incoming data . He highlighted the balance between sustaining expansion and finishing the job on inflation , noting tariff-related price pressures and supply-chain considerations among factors being monitored. The message: no preset path, but openness to adjust as evidence accumulates. Historically, Jackson Hole is more about long-term framework and risk management than near-term moves, and that tone held this year. What it means for the days ahead Near-term market drivers will be how inflation and labor data align with the Fed’s “proceed carefully” posture. • If inflation continues to edge lower while growth holds steady, the door stays open to gradual policy easing later this year. • If price pressures re-accelerate—or if hiring slows more sharply than expected—the Fed may extend its wait-and-see approach. Liquidity dynamics from the Fed’s balance sheet runoff will remain a background factor , but the central story is still inflation’s glide path and the durability of demand . Investors should expect choppy trading around key data releases , with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you . At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to “ Wealth Management for Life ”—providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.