Three Minute Digest for April 14, 2022

April 21, 2022

The brutal Russian Invasion of Ukraine has devasted millions of lives as well as the infrastructure of a land rich in natural resources and central to the economic health of Europe. Here in the United States, the markets face challenges with inflation data rising steadily for fourteen months and topping 40-year highs for the last four months. Discussions of recession are increasing, and we believe the term “stagflation” will soon be a topic for discussion.

Affinity Capital exited our positions in international markets in January and international emerging markets at the end of last year. We stated our belief that Russia would not move on Ukraine until after the Olympics as a gesture to Olympic host China. The 2022 Olympics ended on February 20 th and Russia Invaded on February 24 th .

In our January 26th Digest, we stated, “Mixed signals abound within the question of whether Russia will make advances on Ukraine. ….. vast energy, mining, and agricultural resources. Disruption of these industries through further sanctions or military conflict would have serious repercussions for world markets. ”  The question is whether there will be a high enough level of economic turmoil to propel Europe into recession. Fourteen percent of revenue from the 500 U.S. companies in the S&P 500 come from Europe and dominoes could fall our way and further slow U.S economic growth.

Recession Defined

A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for multiple calendar quarters or even years. This includes rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and lower levels of income and manufacturing. We do note that mild recessions are a normal part of the business cycle however our concern is when recessionary measures become extreme.

Inflation Defined

Inflation is a sustained rise in the cost of goods and services in an economy when the cost of energy, food, and most other goods and services rise faster than wages. A little inflation is a normal part of the business cycle, but a lot of inflation is obviously not favorable. As mentioned above, inflation data has been rising steadily for fourteen months and topping 40-year highs for the last four months. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates excessively low since the 2008 mortgage crisis and our view is that they are behind the curve in managing interest rates. The rapid closing and opening of our economies due to COVID plus ongoing supply chain issues, energy policies exacerbated by Russia’s brutal war and trillions of dollars of government spending have all played a part in where we find ourselves today.

Stagflation Explained

Stagflation is an economic situation in which the inflation rate is high and economic growth rates are low - recession combined with inflation.

Where We Are Now

Good question! That is what the markets are trying to predict and why they are so volatile right now. Our view is that inflation, which drives higher interest rates, is the main concern for our portfolios. We have seen indicators that signal recession, but these signals can lead a recession by 12 to 24 months. As of now, we do see slower growth this year, but cautiously do not see clear indicators of a recession in 2022. As the markets enter the period where corporate America will announce their first quarter earnings, we anticipate reasonable earnings announcements but are extremely cautious on the market reactions to the statements companies will make as to future earnings projections. We expect these to be less optimistic in most sectors.

As always, please feel free to call with any questions. We appreciate your business.

A Choppy Week Defined by Geopolitics, Resilient Data, and a Tech Comeback

July 9, 2026
Markets navigated a volatile week as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran collided with encouraging domestic economic data and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related names. The result was a market that whipsawed day to day but ultimately showed underlying resilience — and one we monitored closely on your behalf throughout the week. Equities: Volatile but Holding Up Major indices experienced sharp intraday swings this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 1.1% in a single session, dropping over 855 points at its intraday low, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite showed more mixed results, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq finishing higher on strength in AI-related names. Later in the week, sentiment improved meaningfully as a resurgence in technology companies powered a broader rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 adding roughly 1% and semiconductor stocks climbing around 4%. Chip names whipsawed, having sold off sharply earlier in the week before staging a partial recovery. We continued to track these swings across portfolios throughout the week and saw no cause for reactive changes. Geopolitics Remains the Dominant Wildcard The renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran was the week's central story, and one we are following closely for downstream portfolio effects. The United States launched fresh airstrikes against Iran, and Tehran responded by targeting Gulf-region interests, following a breakdown of the fragile ceasefire that had been in place. This escalation had an immediate and direct economic effect: energy markets. Crude oil prices spiked sharply, with U.S. benchmark crude rising over 4% and global benchmark crude rising over 5% in a single session, briefly rattling equity markets and lifting energy-sector shares while pressuring more rate-sensitive corners of the market. We noted markets showing a degree of "shock fatigue" as the week progressed, looking past the headlines, though we remain attentive to the possibility of renewed volatility in oil and safe-haven assets should the conflict widen further. The Economic Backdrop Remains Constructive Away from the geopolitical noise, we continue to see an underlying economic picture that supports a "soft landing" narrative. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, a six-week low and below economist estimates, reinforcing continued labor market strength. This follows a broader trend we have been tracking: monthly job gains so far in 2026 have averaged roughly 92,000, well above last year's pace, even as wage growth of about 3.5% year-over-year has remained contained rather than accelerating. This combination, steady hiring without runaway wage pressure, is exactly the kind of environment we believe the Fed wants to see as it weighs its next move. On the Fed itself, minutes from the June FOMC meeting showed officials remain divided on the path forward for rates, with inflation data likely to be the deciding factor going forward. Markets currently assign only about a 28% probability to a rate hike at the July meeting, and we are positioning our outlook accordingly, expecting the Fed to largely stay on hold in the near term. What We're Monitoring on Your Behalf Heading into next week, we are closely tracking the June CPI release and Fed Chair testimony scheduled for mid-July, along with the unofficial kickoff of Q2 earnings season as major banks begin reporting. We view corporate earnings as an important test of whether the strong AI-driven capital spending narrative can translate into sustained profit growth, with Wall Street currently projecting Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth in the low-to-mid 20% range, disproportionately driven by AI-related capital expenditure. We will continue to assess how these developments intersect with account positioning and will reach out proactively if we believe adjustments are warranted. Our Perspective Weeks like this are a good reminder that headline-driven volatility and underlying economic fundamentals often tell different stories. While geopolitical developments can create short-term turbulence — particularly through the energy channel — we continue to view the domestic labor market and corporate earnings backdrop as constructive. We remain engaged and continually monitoring client accounts through periods like this, and our focus stays on long-term financial goals rather than reacting to day-to-day headlines. Please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions about how these developments may affect your individual financial plan.

Market Update: Inflation, AI, and the Road Ahead

June 25, 2026
Markets continue to navigate a mix of encouraging economic news and ongoing global uncertainty. While investors remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for the economy and corporate earnings, headlines from around the world continue to influence day-to-day trading. One of the biggest factors remains geopolitics. Although tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, investors are still watching developments closely because they can affect oil prices, inflation, and ultimately interest rates. Lower oil prices this week have helped calm some inflation concerns, which has been a positive for the broader market. Technology also remains in the spotlight. Strong earnings and continued investment in artificial intelligence have supported parts of the market, although investors are becoming more selective as valuations in some technology companies remain elevated. Looking ahead, markets will continue to focus on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's next steps. If inflation continues to moderate, it could provide support for stocks. However, unexpected developments overseas, changes in energy prices, or shifts in economic data could still create short-term volatility. While short-term market movements can be unsettling, they are a normal part of investing. Rather than reacting to daily headlines, we remain focused on building portfolios designed to weather changing market conditions and help you pursue your long-term financial objectives. Maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment strategy remains one of the most effective ways to navigate uncertainty. As always, if your financial situation or goals have changed, we're here to help ensure your plan continues to align with what matters most to you.

What We're Watching This June — Market Thoughts for You

June 1, 2026
As we turn the page to June, markets find themselves at a familiar crossroads: optimism tempered by uncertainty, momentum tested by macro headwinds. May closed on a constructive note, with equities finishing the month at or near all-time highs — a remarkable recovery from the turbulence that defined the early part of the year. The dominant theme of 2026 has been resilience in the face of disruption. From the tariff volatility of the first quarter to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East, investors have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to look through near-term noise toward the fundamentals. That posture has been rewarded. The S&P 500 has returned over 10% year-to-date, driven in large part by an exceptional earnings season — first-quarter blended growth came in above 28%, the strongest pace in several years — and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence investment. Yet the risk landscape heading into summer is far from benign. The conflict in the Middle East remains the single most important variable in the macro calculus. Energy markets have been severely disrupted, with Brent crude up sharply on the year despite recent relief as hopes for a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz gained traction. Oil prices are not merely an energy story — they are a consumer story, an inflation story, and ultimately an interest rate story. A durable peace agreement could be a meaningful tailwind; a breakdown in talks, the opposite. The bond market deserves particular attention. One of the defining features of this cycle has been the breakdown of the traditional stock-bond diversification relationship. Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, long-duration Treasuries have failed to provide the ballast they historically offered during periods of equity stress. Sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits, and energy-driven price pressures have conspired to keep yields elevated. Investors relying on a classic 60/40 framework may find that the playbook requires updating looking into high quality corporates. On the monetary policy front, the transition at the Federal Reserve — from Chair Powell to Kevin Warsh — has so far been absorbed calmly, with equity and bond volatility both declining in recent sessions. The Fed's path remains data-dependent, and this week's jobs report will be closely watched. Consensus expects the unemployment rate to hold near 4.3%, consistent with a "low hire, low fire" labor market. More interesting may be the wage data: softening wage growth could constrain consumer spending at a moment when the personal savings rate is already under pressure. Globally, the picture is more nuanced than a simple risk-on or risk-off framing suggests. European equities outperformed in May, while the ECB is now actively signaling the possibility of rate hikes in June — a stark contrast to the easing cycle many had anticipated a year ago. Emerging markets have staged a meaningful recovery, supported by AI infrastructure spending and a softer U.S. dollar. The macro divergences between regions are as wide as they have been in years, and that creates both risk and opportunity depending on how portfolios are positioned. Seasonality is worth noting as well. June has historically been a challenging month for equities in midterm election years, and after a sharp rally off the March lows, some degree of consolidation would not be surprising. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and the conditions for short-term choppiness — elevated geopolitical risk, a pivotal central bank meeting in Europe, key economic data releases, and a VIX that has returned to complacency — are present. The bottom line: the fundamental backdrop remains broadly supportive, earnings momentum is intact, and long-term investors have been well-served by staying disciplined. But the risks are real and the range of outcomes is wide. In an environment where traditional hedges are less reliable and geopolitics can move markets overnight, diversification, quality, and a clear-eyed view of one's own time horizon matter more than ever. As always, we are here to discuss how these dynamics relate to your specific situation. Please do not hesitate to reach out.