Three Minute Digest for March 16, 2022

April 21, 2022

The Russia/Ukraine conflict is now in its third week, with faint hopes of a diplomatic resolution, as the two countries met for the second straight day today. So far, negotiations have ended without any progress on a ceasefire, and we are doubtful that Russia has any serious intentions other than placating the world community with talk until they hope to reach their military objectives. 

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) two-day meeting began yesterday, and a statement is traditionally released Wednesday afternoon at 1:15pm CST, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell.  It is widely expected the Fed will hike the federal funds interest rate for the first time since December 2018 by 0.25%, in an effort to combat rising inflation.

Inflation

After steadily climbing throughout 2021 the inflation rate has hit a 40-year high culminating with the energy price shock due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers was up by 7.9% in the 12-month period ending February 2022, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982.  This means a $100.00 basket of goods as measured by the Consumer Price Index in February of last year cost you $107.90 this past February. Inflation can be viewed as either the process of continuously rising prices or, the continuously falling value of money.

The Consumer Price Index or CPI

There are approximately 175 items in the basket of goods that make up the CPI.  It includes products and services such as housing, transportation, recreation, apparel, and education.  The basic measurement is telling us how much the price of that basket of goods has changed over a one-year period.  While there are many economic measures of Inflation, the CPI is the most closely watched.

What is causing our current inflation?

Economists use statistics, and if you are a long-time reader of Affinity Capital commentary you know that one of our favorite quotes by Benjamin Disraeli, that we use a few times each year, is “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”.  Ask an economist and you will get varied opinions, but the answers lie in the confluence of supply chain issues, surging demand, increasing production costs, rising energy costs coupled with an energy price spike via Russian aggression and over $5 trillion dollars printed in Washington and pumped into our economy since the start of the pandemic. 

How does inflation affect our investments?

We are in an odd circumstance in that inflation has been rising but interest rates have not followed suit. Although we expect the Fed to begin raising the Fed Funds rate today, it is only a benchmark to which the markets expect to react accordingly.  Rising interest rates will decrease the value of bonds, but on the positive side will also boost their yields or payments made to bondholders.  We presently hold securities that are designed to navigate a rising interest rate environment.  Additionally, rising inflation and rates are not necessarily bad for stocks, which we will address in the coming weeks.

As always, please feel free to call with any questions or to set a time to visit for a personal portfolio update.  We appreciate the opportunity to serve you!

What a Noisy World Means for Your Portfolio

March 26, 2026
If it feels like the news cycle has been louder than usual lately, that's because it has been. Geopolitical tensions across multiple regions, shifting U.S. trade relationships, and a rapidly changing domestic political landscape are all contributing to elevated market volatility. We want to take a moment to share our perspectives on what this means for your portfolio and for the broader inflation picture. What's Happening Globally We are in an extraordinary moment. The U.S. is reshaping its economic and geopolitical relationships in ways that are accelerating global fragmentation and creating real uncertainty for businesses and investors alike. Energy markets have been particularly sensitive to these developments, with commodity prices responding sharply to supply disruptions and shipping route concerns. Most forecasters believe current disruptions are short-lived and expect prices to moderate as conditions stabilize, but the range of outcomes remains wide. Closer to home, affordability has become the defining political issue heading into the midterm cycle. The administration is rolling out consumer-focused measures around housing costs, prescription drugs, and credit, which could benefit some sectors while creating headwinds for others. What This Means for Inflation The inflation picture is nuanced right now. If current disruptions prove temporary, the impact on consumer prices should remain limited. However, if tensions persist and energy prices stay elevated, we expect to see some upward pressure on inflation over time. It is worth keeping in mind that energy prices, while attention-grabbing, are historically less influential on long-term inflation than factors like wage growth and domestic demand. The broader U.S. picture reflects a tension between tariff-driven price pressure on one side and softening economic momentum on the other. The Fed is navigating this carefully, balancing inflation concerns against labor market signals. For now, rates appear likely to hold steady near term, with modest cuts possible later in the year if conditions warrant. How We're Thinking About Your Portfolio Volatility is uncomfortable, but it is not the enemy of long-term wealth building. History has demonstrated consistently that market disruptions driven by geopolitical events tend to be temporary in nature. Long-term investors are best served by staying anchored to their goals and risk parameters rather than reacting to the news of the day. This environment does reinforce several principles we apply in managing your portfolio: maintaining thoughtful diversification, ensuring fixed income allocations reflect your actual income needs, and being intentional about where inflation and energy exposure sits within your overall strategy. We are monitoring developments closely and will continue to adjust positioning as the picture becomes clearer. As always, if anything here raises questions specific to your situation, please reach out. That conversation is exactly what we are here for.

What the New Tax Legislations Mean for Your Tax Plan in 2026

March 12, 2026
If you’ve been paying attention to the tax landscape this year, you already know the ground has shifted. New tax legislations signed into law last July made sweeping changes to the federal tax code—and for high-net-worth individuals and families, the implications are significant. Let’s cut through the noise and share what we think matters most. First, the seven-bracket individual rate structure from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is now permanent. That means the top marginal rate stays at 37 percent. For years, many of us were planning around the possibility that rates would snap back to 39.6 percent in 2026. That’s off the table. If you’d been accelerating income into prior years to avoid a potential rate increase, it’s time to reassess that strategy. Second, the standard deduction was made permanent at its elevated level. For most of our clients, this doesn’t change the calculus—you’re likely itemizing anyway—but it’s worth noting if you have family members in simpler tax situations. Third, and this is the big one for estate planning: the federal lifetime gift and estate tax exemption is now permanently set at $15 million per individual, indexed for inflation. No more sunset. For married couples, that’s $30 million you can transfer free of federal estate tax—and that number will only grow with inflation adjustments. If you’ve been hesitating on gifting strategies because of uncertainty around the exemption, that uncertainty is gone. There are also new wrinkles in the charitable deduction rules. Starting this year, itemized charitable deductions are only available for amounts exceeding 0.5 percent of your adjusted gross income, and the deduction is capped at 35 percent for taxpayers in the top bracket. That’s a meaningful change from the prior 60 percent AGI limit for cash gifts. If philanthropy is part of your wealth plan—and for many of our clients, it is—we need to rethink how and when you give. The SALT deduction cap has also been adjusted, rising to roughly $40,000 with phase-outs starting around $500,000 in modified AGI. For those of us in Texas, the lack of a state income tax softens this blow, but if you hold property in high-tax states, it’s still relevant. Here’s our takeaway after thirty years of doing this: certainty in the tax code is rare. When you get it, act on it. The permanent nature of these provisions gives us a genuine planning window. Let’s not waste it. If you haven’t reviewed your tax plan since last summer, let’s schedule a conversation.

Caught in the Middle: Sandwich Generation Financial Advice for Families Under Pressure

February 10, 2026
Caring for children and aging parents at the same time has become the reality for millions of families. The financial and emotional weight of this responsibility often arrives gradually — and then all at once. Those navigating this stage of life are known as the sandwich generation. What makes it uniquely challenging is not just the cost, but the constant pull on time, attention, and long-term planning. Effective sandwich generation financial advice must address all three pressures together: time, money, and estate considerations. The Hidden Cost: Time Caregiving demands time long before it demands money. Between medical appointments, school schedules, work responsibilities, and daily logistics, financial decisions are often pushed aside until they become urgent. This reactive approach increases stress and limits options. Proactive Elder Care planning helps families anticipate needs, organize responsibilities, and avoid crisis-driven decisions. With a clear structure in place, time becomes a tool rather than a constant source of pressure. Financial Pressure from Both Directions For many in the sandwich generation, every dollar is already spoken for. Supporting children through education and activities while helping parents with healthcare or living expenses can strain even well-managed finances. The challenge is maintaining momentum toward long-term goals while meeting immediate needs. A thoughtful Wealth Management strategy helps families: Prioritize cash flow intentionally Protect retirement savings Align short-term support with long-term security Preserve flexibility as circumstances evolve Without this coordination, it is easy to sacrifice future stability for today’s demands. Estate Planning Moves to the Forefront Caring for aging parents often forces conversations families have postponed for years. Questions around decision-making authority, asset coordination, beneficiary designations, and legacy planning become unavoidable. Addressing these matters early reduces uncertainty and helps protect family relationships during emotionally charged moments. Estate planning is not only about transferring assets — it is about clarity, dignity, and continuity across generations. A More Sustainable Way Forward The sandwich generation does not need perfection — it needs structure. With the right guidance, families can reduce stress, gain clarity, and create plans that reflect real life rather than idealized assumptions. Coordinating Elder Care and Wealth Management allows families to support loved ones without compromising their own future. At Affinity Capital, we help families navigate this complex season with perspective, intention, and care.