Decoding the Fed's Latest Moves: Insights from Yesterday's Pivotal Meeting

February 1, 2024

In the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting of 2024 held yesterday, the key decision was to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, maintaining it within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This move marks the fourth consecutive time the central bank has opted against a rate hike since July 2023. This decision reflects the Fed's response to the current economic situation, where there's been some progress in managing inflation, although it still hovers above the Fed's target of 2%.

The U.S. economy has shown resilience despite these rate increases. The employment sector has been particularly strong, with a sub 4% unemployment rate and job openings outnumbering unemployed workers. However, the housing sector, sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, has faced challenges, with existing home sales reaching their lowest annual tally since 1995.

In 2024, the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience, primarily buoyed by robust consumer spending. This resilience is particularly notable considering the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The last quarter of 2023 saw the economy grow at a rate of 3.3%, supported by strong consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. This growth was facilitated by rising wages, higher interest and dividend income, and subsiding inflation, allowing consumers to spend more on dining out, hotels, healthcare, recreational goods, and vehicles. 

However, it's important to note that the National Retail Federation cautions that the growth in consumer spending seen in 2023 might not be sustainable in 2024. The labor market is expected to cool, which could impact consumer expectations and spending decisions. Despite this, the overall economic fundamentals remain solid, suggesting that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession in 2024. The key to maintaining this positive trajectory will be how the Federal Reserve manages interest rates moving forward. 

Looking ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signals that rate cuts could be on the horizon, potentially starting as soon as May 2024. These anticipated rate cuts are in line with the Fed's observation that the economy is on a path of sustainable growth and that inflation is gradually moderating. The market anticipates that these cuts could surpass the Fed's projected 75 basis points of easing by the end of the year, possibly adding an additional 50 basis points.

Mortgage rates, closely tied to the Fed's policy actions, have stabilized in the early part of 2024. For significant drops in mortgage rates, more evidence of slowing inflation and sustainable economic growth is needed. It's expected that mortgage rates will start to ease, aligning with the broader market anticipation of a more normalized monetary policy as the year progresses.

It's worth noting that while the Fed's rate decisions are crucial, mortgage rates are influenced by multiple factors and not set directly by the Fed. The Fed's rate decisions often correlate with movements in mortgage rates, though other economic and political factors also play a role.

These developments suggest a period of relative stability in the near term, with the possibility of more favorable borrowing conditions as the year unfolds. However, it's important to remain vigilant and responsive to new economic data and the Fed's future policy decisions.

Overall, the Fed's current stance indicates a careful approach, balancing the need for economic growth with the goal of maintaining inflation control. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for March 19-20, 2024, will provide further insights into the Fed's economic outlook and policy adjustments. We will continue to monitor these developments closely and provide guidance on how they may impact your investment strategy. As always, our team is here to support your financial goals and answer any questions you may have.

Please feel free to reach out for further discussion or clarification on these matters. Thank you for the opportunity to serve you and your family and to collaborate with you for—Wealth Management for Life!

Finishing 2025 Strong: Key Trends to Watch

December 1, 2025
As we move into the final month of 2025, markets are adjusting to a new mix of encouraging economic trends and lingering uncertainty. November ended on a softer note, but December has opened with improved sentiment, clearer expectations around Federal Reserve policy, and a more confident tone in both equity and fixed income markets. Investors are watching these shifts closely, and the weeks ahead will help determine how the year ultimately finishes. At Affinity Capital, we continue to see an environment supported by quality leadership, steady earnings, and more attractive income opportunities. At the same time, late-cycle pressures and uneven economic data remind us that thoughtful risk management remains essential. A More Constructive Tone to Start December December began on firmer footing after several weeks of mixed performance. The most significant driver has been the market’s growing conviction that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Current pricing suggests a meaningful chance of a cut in the near term, which has helped lift sentiment across equities and high-quality bonds. This optimism has also supported areas that tend to benefit from lower yield expectations, such as precious metals and rate-sensitive parts of the market. While not a guarantee of what comes next, the shift toward more accommodative policy expectations has created a more balanced backdrop than we saw earlier in the fall. Economic Data Remains Mixed Despite the improved tone, the incoming data continues to show pockets of weakness. Manufacturing activity has contracted for another month, hiring momentum has slowed, and consumer spending has moderated from its pace earlier in the year. The recent government shutdown delayed several economic releases, and the catch-up process has added some short-term noise to the data stream. What stands out is the contrast between a resilient corporate earnings picture and a softer macro environment. Many large companies continue to report healthy margins and steady demand, yet the broader economic indicators suggest that growth is losing some steam. This type of divergence is typical in late-cycle phases and often results in more frequent market swings. Volatility Has Picked Up After months of historically low volatility, markets have begun to experience more frequent fluctuations. Concerns around artificial intelligence valuations, regional banking stress, and geopolitical developments have all played a role. Volatility is not necessarily a sign of structural weakness, but it is a reminder that investors should expect a less predictable finish to the year. For diversified portfolios, these swings can create opportunities to rebalance, harvest gains, or add exposure to areas that have repriced more attractively. They also highlight the importance of high-quality holdings that can withstand periods of uncertainty. Opportunities Across Equities and Fixed Income Even with the mixed data backdrop, the overall investment environment remains constructive for long-term investors. High-quality U.S. companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings continue to provide stability at the core of portfolios. Select small-cap and mid-cap companies have also begun to show signs of improvement as rate expectations shift. In fixed income, today’s yields offer significantly more value than they did for much of the past decade. Bonds once again contribute meaningful income, and the possibility of lower rates in 2026 creates potential for price appreciation in high-grade credit. This combination strengthens the case for balanced portfolios that include both equities and fixed income. Positioning Into Year-End Given the current landscape, we believe the market is moving toward a finish that is neither overly exuberant nor overly cautious. Several key themes are likely to guide performance over the coming weeks. Quality leadership continues to play an important role, especially in sectors tied to innovation, cloud infrastructure, and digital transformation Broad market exposure remains valuable in capturing the benefits of seasonal strength and earnings resilience Dividend-oriented and defensive holdings support stability in late-cycle environments High-quality bonds offer attractive income and diversification benefits Small-cap and mid-cap allocations may provide long-term upside as rate expectations shift Looking Ahead As the year comes to a close, investors are balancing two realities. On one side, there is growing optimism around potential rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings, and improving seasonal patterns. On the other side, there are signs of slowing economic momentum, higher volatility, and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The result is a market that rewards discipline, diversification, and a focus on long-term goals. At Affinity Capital, our approach remains steady. We continue to emphasize high-quality holdings, balanced allocations, and thoughtful adjustments based on data rather than emotion. The coming months will bring new information, but the principles that guide long-term success remain unchanged. We are here to help clients stay aligned with their plans and positioned with confidence as we move into a new year.

Fed Cuts Rates: What It Means

October 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve announced today that it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the federal funds target range down to 3.75% to 4.00% . While it may sound like just another number, this decision carries real implications for the economy and financial markets. Why the Fed Made This Move The Fed has two primary goals: keep inflation under control and support a healthy job market. Over the last year, much of the focus has been on the first goal. Inflation has been stubborn, running higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Now, however, concerns about the job market are moving to the forefront. Hiring has slowed, and the Fed has acknowledged that risks to employment are rising. With economic data disrupted by the government shutdown, the central bank is working with incomplete information. In that uncertainty, officials chose to act in what they call a “risk management” mode, providing a bit of cushion for the economy. What This Means for the Economy Borrowing and Spending Lower rates typically filter into lower borrowing costs for businesses and households. That can mean slightly cheaper loans, credit cards, and mortgages. We have already seen mortgage rates dip in anticipation of this move, and that could provide some relief for homebuyers. Business Investment When financing is less expensive, businesses are more likely to expand, invest, and hire. The Fed hopes this cut provides enough encouragement to keep the labor market steady. The reality, however, is that a single quarter-point cut may only have a modest impact unless overall demand in the economy improves. Inflation Still in the Picture The challenge is that inflation has not gone away. By easing policy while prices are still running above target, the Fed runs the risk of letting inflation flare up again. That balancing act—supporting jobs without reigniting inflation—will be the key tension in the months ahead. Housing and Consumers The housing sector is especially sensitive to changes in interest rates. Builders and buyers often respond quickly when financing costs move even a little lower. At the same time, for households carrying debt, lower rates can make it easier to manage payments or refinance. But if wages stagnate or unemployment rises, those benefits may be limited. Markets and Volatility Markets had largely anticipated this cut, so the bigger story is what happens next. Investors are already debating whether this will be the first of several cuts, or just a one-off adjustment. That uncertainty often creates volatility in both stocks and bonds. The Bigger Picture The Fed has made it clear that there is no preset course. Officials will continue to watch the data and adjust policy as needed. That means future moves could go in either direction depending on whether inflation proves sticky or the job market weakens further. What does this mean in practical terms? It means we are entering a period where the Fed may be more reactive than proactive. Each new employment report, inflation reading, or sign of economic strength or weakness will take on outsized importance. Our Perspective For clients, the most important takeaway is that the Fed is signaling greater concern about the labor market, even as inflation remains above target. In other words, the economy is at a delicate point. The rate cut should provide some near-term relief, but it is not a magic fix. We are watching several key areas closely: The pace of hiring and unemployment trends Inflation data to see if price pressures start to ease or flare back up Housing activity, which could pick up if mortgage rates continue to drift lower The Fed’s move today is best seen as a stabilizing step. It shows policymakers are willing to provide support if needed, but it also highlights just how uncertain the path forward is. Periods like this can create noise in the markets, but they also underscore the value of staying focused on long-term goals. Our role is to keep a steady eye on developments, evaluate the implications, and make thoughtful decisions on your behalf. As always, we will continue monitoring the Fed’s actions and the broader economy, and we will keep you updated as the situation evolves.

Market Pulse: “Shutdown Jitters, Gold Glitters, Oil Slips”

October 1, 2025
Markets are navigating a new U.S. government shutdown, softer recent labor signals, and sliding oil while investors keep one eye on the Fed’s path after its September meeting. Equities are mixed but near highs, leadership remains tilted toward technology with improving breadth, and defensive assets like gold are seeing renewed demand. What moved today (Oct 1) : After notching strong September and Q3 gains yesterday, with the S&P 500 up about 0.4 percent on September 30 and the Dow setting another record close, U.S. stocks were choppy this morning as the shutdown began. The Nasdaq and Dow traded slightly higher intraday while the S&P hovered near flat. Overseas, the FTSE 100 hit a record as healthcare shares rallied. Gold pushed to fresh records as investors hedged against policy and data uncertainty. Current events to watch: U.S. government shutdown: With funding lapsed, key economic releases may be delayed, including Friday’s jobs report. This muddies near-term visibility for the Fed and markets. Furloughs and suspended data flows could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter if the shutdown lasts. The Fed’s recent guidance: At the September 17 meeting, the Fed’s projections suggested a lower policy path into 2026 as inflation cools, keeping the possibility of additional rate cuts alive. August PCE inflation printed at 2.7 percent year-over-year, reinforcing a gradual disinflation trend heading into the final quarter of the year. Commodities reset: Crude oil has retreated into the low $60s (WTI) on talk of potential OPEC+ supply increases and a softer global manufacturing pulse. The EIA’s outlook anticipates further price softness as inventories build into early 2026, which could provide relief for consumers and businesses. Sectors and standouts: Technology and growth: The third-quarter rally was led by large technology companies, but participation broadened across more sectors, which is healthy for the durability of the uptrend. Elevated valuations mean earnings delivery remains critical in October. Defensives and healthcare: In Europe, healthcare leadership helped drive record U.K. index levels today. In the U.S., defensive sectors have provided ballast on volatile days as bond yields eased. Energy: Lower oil prices have weighed on energy shares but should ease input costs for transportation, consumer, and industrial companies if sustained. Why this is happening: Markets are balancing two forces. On one side is a soft-landing narrative with cooling inflation, prospects for additional Fed cuts, and resilient corporate earnings. On the other side is event risk from the government shutdown, murkier global growth, and shifting oil supply expectations. As long as inflation trends continue to drift lower and policy remains supportive, dips have been bought, but when data flow is disrupted, headlines can dominate. What it could mean next: Volatility watch: With fewer data releases if reports are delayed, markets may be more sensitive to headlines. Credit spreads and market breadth are worth watching since deterioration there would be an early warning sign. Rates and policy: Fed commentary and any clarity on funding negotiations may set the tone. Markets currently lean toward additional easing by year-end, and confirmation or pushback from officials can move both equities and rate-sensitive sectors. Oil and inflation: If crude remains subdued, disinflation into year-end is supported, which is constructive for risk assets as long as growth holds up. Bottom line : Despite today’s wobble, the overall trend remains constructive but sensitive to headlines. A diversified approach, focus on quality balance sheets, and disciplined rebalancing remain prudent as we enter a period where policy developments may matter more than usual data. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you. At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to “Wealth Management for Life,” providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.