Insights: Clarity on markets. Guidance for decisions.

It was a Fed-heavy week, with three major developments that matter for markets and the economy. FOMC minutes (July 29–30) — released Wednesday (Aug. 20). The minutes reinforced a data-dependent stance : participants saw continued progress on inflation but noted that risks aren’t one-way, citing pockets of labor-market cooling and the growth impact of tighter financial conditions. Policymakers emphasized flexibility and the need to see inflation moving durably toward 2% before declaring victory. For investors, the takeaway is that the bar for rapid policy shifts remains high, but the Committee is clearly keeping both sides of the mandate in view. Weekly balance sheet (H.4.1) — released Thursday (Aug. 21). The Fed’s weekly statement showed the usual moving pieces: securities holdings, reserve balances, and program usage. While week-to-week changes can be noisy, the release remains a useful pulse on system liquidity and the runoff of the Fed’s portfolio under quantitative tightening . Markets watch aggregate reserves and Treasury General Account flows because they can nudge front-end rates and funding conditions at the margin. Jackson Hole — Chair Powell’s Friday address. At the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium, Chair Powell underscored that policy decisions will continue to be guided by incoming data . He highlighted the balance between sustaining expansion and finishing the job on inflation , noting tariff-related price pressures and supply-chain considerations among factors being monitored. The message: no preset path, but openness to adjust as evidence accumulates. Historically, Jackson Hole is more about long-term framework and risk management than near-term moves, and that tone held this year. What it means for the days ahead Near-term market drivers will be how inflation and labor data align with the Fed’s “proceed carefully” posture. • If inflation continues to edge lower while growth holds steady, the door stays open to gradual policy easing later this year. • If price pressures re-accelerate—or if hiring slows more sharply than expected—the Fed may extend its wait-and-see approach. Liquidity dynamics from the Fed’s balance sheet runoff will remain a background factor , but the central story is still inflation’s glide path and the durability of demand . Investors should expect choppy trading around key data releases , with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you . At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to “ Wealth Management for Life ”—providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.

Markets entered the week with a boost of optimism, fueled by softer labor data and growing chatter that the Federal Reserve might be leaning toward a rate cut this fall. But that optimism didn’t last long . As the week unfolded, economic uncertainty returned to center stage: fresh concerns about tariffs, underwhelming corporate earnings in some sectors, and signs of consumer fatigue in key parts of the economy tempered the early enthusiasm.

This week’s stock markets were marked by tight trading ranges, record-setting highs in tech, and a backdrop of macro uncertainty. The S&P 500 (through SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ), and Dow (DIA) eked out modest gains, shrugging off headline volatility tied to Fed independence concerns and escalating tariff threats.

The U.S. equity markets were marked by a modest pullback in the Nasdaq, while the Dow and small caps posted gains. Through Tuesday, the Dow Jones surged roughly +1.5% , while the S&P 500 added about +0.4% and the Nasdaq slipped ~‑0.3% for the week. Mega-cap technology stocks led earlier gains, pushing both the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs by early July, building on a two‑month rally of nearly +24% from April lows.

The Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. This move aligns with market expectations and reflects the Fed's cautious approach amid evolving economic conditions.