Market Flash | Affinity Capital
March 10, 2025
Quite a day in the markets.
Starting two weeks ago, we have sold several tech-heavy positions in all client portfolios. We have also maintained much higher-than-normal cash levels in all client accounts in anticipation of increased volatility. We believe the portfolio management decision to keep so much “dry powder” in our portfolios will prove beneficial.
We have felt the markets and especially the “Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks” were somewhat overvalued even before the election. Keep in mind the markets have seen record highs in just the last few months and a good flushing of the pipes is not necessarily a bad thing. What we watch for are clues to whether the short-term market is just correcting or whether the integrity of the market dynamic is shifting in a mid / long term way. We are looking at rebalancing alternatives and uses for cash … but … we do not want to be out of position for a rebound. With this in mind, we will need to work through volatility, rebalance and maintain our focus as long-term investors
Our view on the major market Indices:
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq will likely see another 5% to 9% downside.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a support level. While we would like to see it hold here, the next drop could be another 4.5% to 5 %. For perspective that would be in the area of another 2000 points to the downside – which sounds a bit scarier than 5%
- The S&P 500 may see another 5% to the downside.
Following these types of selloffs, the market can bounce strongly and then may go back down to “test” the previous lows. As mentioned above, we need to work through volatility and maintain our focus as long-term investors.
What is driving the markets?
- We look for the “Tariff Volatility” to be priced into the market by the end of 2nd quarter. Good or bad is a separate issue. It is the fear of the unknown that drives volatility.
- We see the tax bill in congress as an overall positive for the markets. That unknown should have clarity by the end of the 2nd quarter as well.
- Another congressional Continuing Resolution to stave off a government shutdown is an added market driver although historically, these have not caused much economic stress. The timing, however, is compounding the market volatility.
- Two huge tech giants started the ball rolling downhill. Nvidia announced a massive earnings beat, an increase to its dividend, and reported a 262% surge in year-over-year revenues and Wall Street is worried they cannot do better going forward. Tesla with the “Elon factor” and reduced government investment in electric cars is pushing Tesla down. NVIDIA will find a bottom and continue to be a market leader – Tesla, not so sure. Wait and see. The rest of big tech is caught in the undercurrent but remain very healthy companies.
- Recession signals are starting to flash brighter although the bond market has been waving a red flag for quite a long time now. Plus, the recent weak economic data does not yet reflect the government workers and contractors that may be driving unemployment numbers going forward while recognizing that government job creation has favored employment data in recent years. We do note that markets can still perform well during a recession. Stagflation is a bigger concern but that is a more involved discussion.
- We will defer comment on the multitude of other hopefully, (hope is not a strategy but I will use the term just this once), temporary headwinds of market, policy, and political dramas. … We live in interesting times!
Please feel free to call. We appreciate the opportunity to serve you.
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As we move into the final month of 2025, markets are adjusting to a new mix of encouraging economic trends and lingering uncertainty. November ended on a softer note, but December has opened with improved sentiment, clearer expectations around Federal Reserve policy, and a more confident tone in both equity and fixed income markets. Investors are watching these shifts closely, and the weeks ahead will help determine how the year ultimately finishes. At Affinity Capital, we continue to see an environment supported by quality leadership, steady earnings, and more attractive income opportunities. At the same time, late-cycle pressures and uneven economic data remind us that thoughtful risk management remains essential. A More Constructive Tone to Start December December began on firmer footing after several weeks of mixed performance. The most significant driver has been the market’s growing conviction that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Current pricing suggests a meaningful chance of a cut in the near term, which has helped lift sentiment across equities and high-quality bonds. This optimism has also supported areas that tend to benefit from lower yield expectations, such as precious metals and rate-sensitive parts of the market. While not a guarantee of what comes next, the shift toward more accommodative policy expectations has created a more balanced backdrop than we saw earlier in the fall. Economic Data Remains Mixed Despite the improved tone, the incoming data continues to show pockets of weakness. Manufacturing activity has contracted for another month, hiring momentum has slowed, and consumer spending has moderated from its pace earlier in the year. The recent government shutdown delayed several economic releases, and the catch-up process has added some short-term noise to the data stream. What stands out is the contrast between a resilient corporate earnings picture and a softer macro environment. Many large companies continue to report healthy margins and steady demand, yet the broader economic indicators suggest that growth is losing some steam. This type of divergence is typical in late-cycle phases and often results in more frequent market swings. Volatility Has Picked Up After months of historically low volatility, markets have begun to experience more frequent fluctuations. Concerns around artificial intelligence valuations, regional banking stress, and geopolitical developments have all played a role. Volatility is not necessarily a sign of structural weakness, but it is a reminder that investors should expect a less predictable finish to the year. For diversified portfolios, these swings can create opportunities to rebalance, harvest gains, or add exposure to areas that have repriced more attractively. They also highlight the importance of high-quality holdings that can withstand periods of uncertainty. Opportunities Across Equities and Fixed Income Even with the mixed data backdrop, the overall investment environment remains constructive for long-term investors. High-quality U.S. companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings continue to provide stability at the core of portfolios. Select small-cap and mid-cap companies have also begun to show signs of improvement as rate expectations shift. In fixed income, today’s yields offer significantly more value than they did for much of the past decade. Bonds once again contribute meaningful income, and the possibility of lower rates in 2026 creates potential for price appreciation in high-grade credit. This combination strengthens the case for balanced portfolios that include both equities and fixed income. Positioning Into Year-End Given the current landscape, we believe the market is moving toward a finish that is neither overly exuberant nor overly cautious. Several key themes are likely to guide performance over the coming weeks. Quality leadership continues to play an important role, especially in sectors tied to innovation, cloud infrastructure, and digital transformation Broad market exposure remains valuable in capturing the benefits of seasonal strength and earnings resilience Dividend-oriented and defensive holdings support stability in late-cycle environments High-quality bonds offer attractive income and diversification benefits Small-cap and mid-cap allocations may provide long-term upside as rate expectations shift Looking Ahead As the year comes to a close, investors are balancing two realities. On one side, there is growing optimism around potential rate cuts, resilient corporate earnings, and improving seasonal patterns. On the other side, there are signs of slowing economic momentum, higher volatility, and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The result is a market that rewards discipline, diversification, and a focus on long-term goals. At Affinity Capital, our approach remains steady. We continue to emphasize high-quality holdings, balanced allocations, and thoughtful adjustments based on data rather than emotion. The coming months will bring new information, but the principles that guide long-term success remain unchanged. We are here to help clients stay aligned with their plans and positioned with confidence as we move into a new year.
The Federal Reserve announced today that it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing the federal funds target range down to 3.75% to 4.00% . While it may sound like just another number, this decision carries real implications for the economy and financial markets. Why the Fed Made This Move The Fed has two primary goals: keep inflation under control and support a healthy job market. Over the last year, much of the focus has been on the first goal. Inflation has been stubborn, running higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Now, however, concerns about the job market are moving to the forefront. Hiring has slowed, and the Fed has acknowledged that risks to employment are rising. With economic data disrupted by the government shutdown, the central bank is working with incomplete information. In that uncertainty, officials chose to act in what they call a “risk management” mode, providing a bit of cushion for the economy. What This Means for the Economy Borrowing and Spending Lower rates typically filter into lower borrowing costs for businesses and households. That can mean slightly cheaper loans, credit cards, and mortgages. We have already seen mortgage rates dip in anticipation of this move, and that could provide some relief for homebuyers. Business Investment When financing is less expensive, businesses are more likely to expand, invest, and hire. The Fed hopes this cut provides enough encouragement to keep the labor market steady. The reality, however, is that a single quarter-point cut may only have a modest impact unless overall demand in the economy improves. Inflation Still in the Picture The challenge is that inflation has not gone away. By easing policy while prices are still running above target, the Fed runs the risk of letting inflation flare up again. That balancing act—supporting jobs without reigniting inflation—will be the key tension in the months ahead. Housing and Consumers The housing sector is especially sensitive to changes in interest rates. Builders and buyers often respond quickly when financing costs move even a little lower. At the same time, for households carrying debt, lower rates can make it easier to manage payments or refinance. But if wages stagnate or unemployment rises, those benefits may be limited. Markets and Volatility Markets had largely anticipated this cut, so the bigger story is what happens next. Investors are already debating whether this will be the first of several cuts, or just a one-off adjustment. That uncertainty often creates volatility in both stocks and bonds. The Bigger Picture The Fed has made it clear that there is no preset course. Officials will continue to watch the data and adjust policy as needed. That means future moves could go in either direction depending on whether inflation proves sticky or the job market weakens further. What does this mean in practical terms? It means we are entering a period where the Fed may be more reactive than proactive. Each new employment report, inflation reading, or sign of economic strength or weakness will take on outsized importance. Our Perspective For clients, the most important takeaway is that the Fed is signaling greater concern about the labor market, even as inflation remains above target. In other words, the economy is at a delicate point. The rate cut should provide some near-term relief, but it is not a magic fix. We are watching several key areas closely: The pace of hiring and unemployment trends Inflation data to see if price pressures start to ease or flare back up Housing activity, which could pick up if mortgage rates continue to drift lower The Fed’s move today is best seen as a stabilizing step. It shows policymakers are willing to provide support if needed, but it also highlights just how uncertain the path forward is. Periods like this can create noise in the markets, but they also underscore the value of staying focused on long-term goals. Our role is to keep a steady eye on developments, evaluate the implications, and make thoughtful decisions on your behalf. As always, we will continue monitoring the Fed’s actions and the broader economy, and we will keep you updated as the situation evolves.