Three Minute Digest for February 15, 2022 | Affinity Capital

April 21, 2022

The markets continue to be concerned about rising US consumer costs and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Our thoughts lean towards Vladimir Putin playing high stakes hardball to position himself on a number of geopolitical issues with the West. There is a crippling economic downside for Russia from an invasion although China is more than willing to step in and fill the void if needed.

A decline in COVID-19 cases across the US prompted officials to relax some restrictions.

Three Thoughts for the Markets

Russia /Ukraine

Crude oil is approaching $95 per barrel and the psychological impact should it surge to $100 could be significant for the markets and our economy.

We are at point of maximum uncertainty for the Russia / Ukraine crisis. Vladimir Putin may sense weakness in the NATO / Western allies’ options to respond and at 70 years of age, he may see this as his best opportunity to cement his legacy of Russian dominance over the former USSR satellite nations. The main stated goal of deterring Ukraine from joining NATO has perhaps already been met although Putin is looking for a permanent declaration from NATO preventing Ukrainian membership.

The Nord Stream II pipeline is a key bargaining chip in this dispute. It is a new 745-mile gas pipeline running from western Russia to north-eastern Germany under the Baltic Sea. It follows the exact same route as Nord Stream 1 which was completed in 2012. It is designed to double the amount of natural gas flowing from Russia straight to Germany. Its owner is the Russian state-controlled gas firm Gazprom.

Inflation / Interest Rates

The consensus on Wall Street sees the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as many as seven times this year. Historically, rate changes are at 0.25% intervals. It is possible the March meeting may see a 0.50% hike and the market reaction to that is certainly to be determined.

The Federal Reserve or “Fed” through the FOMC, Federal Open Markets Committee set the Federal Funds Rate. This is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. Banks are required to maintain a certain ration of funds relative to their daily deposits. If a bank is under this level on any day, they borrow money from each to meet the required levels.

While it may not seem like an overnight interest rate between banks would affect each of us – this rate is an important benchmark for most other interest rates in our economy.

Canadian Truckers Protest

The protest began with the introduction of a new rule that all truckers must be vaccinated to cross the US-Canada border, but the protests have morphed into broader challenges to Covid health restrictions and the Canadian government in general. Truckers have gridlocked the area around their Parliament in the Canadian Capital of Ottawa.

The Canadian protest could move south and further impact supply chains, adding tension to an already nervous market.

Signals from the Fed: Inflation, Growth, and What Comes Next

August 22, 2025
It was a Fed-heavy week, with three major developments that matter for markets and the economy. FOMC minutes (July 29–30) — released Wednesday (Aug. 20). The minutes reinforced a data-dependent stance : participants saw continued progress on inflation but noted that risks aren’t one-way, citing pockets of labor-market cooling and the growth impact of tighter financial conditions. Policymakers emphasized flexibility and the need to see inflation moving durably toward 2% before declaring victory. For investors, the takeaway is that the bar for rapid policy shifts remains high, but the Committee is clearly keeping both sides of the mandate in view. Weekly balance sheet (H.4.1) — released Thursday (Aug. 21). The Fed’s weekly statement showed the usual moving pieces: securities holdings, reserve balances, and program usage. While week-to-week changes can be noisy, the release remains a useful pulse on system liquidity and the runoff of the Fed’s portfolio under quantitative tightening . Markets watch aggregate reserves and Treasury General Account flows because they can nudge front-end rates and funding conditions at the margin. Jackson Hole — Chair Powell’s Friday address. At the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium, Chair Powell underscored that policy decisions will continue to be guided by incoming data . He highlighted the balance between sustaining expansion and finishing the job on inflation , noting tariff-related price pressures and supply-chain considerations among factors being monitored. The message: no preset path, but openness to adjust as evidence accumulates. Historically, Jackson Hole is more about long-term framework and risk management than near-term moves, and that tone held this year. What it means for the days ahead Near-term market drivers will be how inflation and labor data align with the Fed’s “proceed carefully” posture. • If inflation continues to edge lower while growth holds steady, the door stays open to gradual policy easing later this year. • If price pressures re-accelerate—or if hiring slows more sharply than expected—the Fed may extend its wait-and-see approach. Liquidity dynamics from the Fed’s balance sheet runoff will remain a background factor , but the central story is still inflation’s glide path and the durability of demand . Investors should expect choppy trading around key data releases , with markets pricing probabilities rather than certainties. As always, we welcome your questions and are here to support you . At the heart of everything we do is our commitment to “ Wealth Management for Life ”—providing enduring guidance for you and your family’s financial success.

Fed Moves and Market Trends | Affinity Capital

August 6, 2025
Markets entered the week with a boost of optimism, fueled by softer labor data and growing chatter that the Federal Reserve might be leaning toward a rate cut this fall. But that optimism didn’t last long . As the week unfolded, economic uncertainty returned to center stage: fresh concerns about tariffs, underwhelming corporate earnings in some sectors, and signs of consumer fatigue in key parts of the economy tempered the early enthusiasm.

Weekly Market Update: Stability Amid Data and Tariff Jitters | Affinity Capital

July 17, 2025
This week’s stock markets were marked by tight trading ranges, record-setting highs in tech, and a backdrop of macro uncertainty. The S&P 500 (through SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ), and Dow (DIA) eked out modest gains, shrugging off headline volatility tied to Fed independence concerns and escalating tariff threats.